What are the chances of my baker getting selected to bake?

I have 2 rolls as my staking balance and have not been given baking rights since 5 cycles. I've been getting endorsement rights but no baking rights. Is there any formula depending on current number of rolls in ecosystem, using which i can calculate amount to tezos i need in my staking balance in order to get selected to bake.

3 Answers

There are about 50k rolls right now, and 4096 blocks per cycle. Based on this, you can work out using the following:

``````probableBakesPerCycle = (2/49997) * 4096;
``````

About 0.16 bakes per cycle, or 1 bake every 6.1 cycles.

https://tzscan.io currently shows the number of rolls as well

Assuming there are N rolls, you have 2 chances out of N to be selected to bake at level X with priority Y

• N = 2, you will be selected with probability 1,
• N = 4, you will be selected with probability 1/2,
• N = 49941 (which is the number of rolls for cycle 80), you'll be selected with probability 0,000040047 (for each priority of each level)

This means that you have 0,164032512 probability to bake at level 0 during cycle 80.

Assignment of baking rights in a cycle are independent choices. So the probability for you to get at least one baking right with prio 0 in a cycle is:

`(1-((50000-2)/50000)^4096) = 15.1%`

• Your formula is very complex and also multiplication operator is to be used with 4096 not the power operator. I find answer by @Stephen more simple and clear. Feb 14 '19 at 5:46