I have 2 rolls as my staking balance and have not been given baking rights since 5 cycles. I've been getting endorsement rights but no baking rights. Is there any formula depending on current number of rolls in ecosystem, using which i can calculate amount to tezos i need in my staking balance in order to get selected to bake.
There are about 50k rolls right now, and 4096 blocks per cycle. Based on this, you can work out using the following:
probableBakesPerCycle = (2/49997) * 4096;
About 0.16 bakes per cycle, or 1 bake every 6.1 cycles.
https://tzscan.io currently shows the number of rolls as well
Assuming there are N rolls, you have 2 chances out of N to be selected to bake at level X with priority Y
- N = 2, you will be selected with probability 1,
- N = 4, you will be selected with probability 1/2,
- N = 49941 (which is the number of rolls for cycle 80), you'll be selected with probability 0,000040047 (for each priority of each level)
This means that you have 0,164032512 probability to bake at level 0 during cycle 80.